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Central Limit Theorem 2

Bora Jin

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Today's Goal

  • Use Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to conduct inference on a population mean
  • Conduct CLT-based inference step-by-step and using the infer package
  • Understand t-distribution vs. standard normal, N(0,1) distribution
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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is approximately normal

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is approximately normal

✅ The distribution is centered at

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is approximately normal

✅ The distribution is centered at the population parameter (often interest of inference)

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is approximately normal

✅ The distribution is centered at the population parameter (often interest of inference)

✅ The variability of the distribution is inversely proportional to the square root of

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Quiz

Q - State the central limit theorem.

For a population with a well-defined mean μ and standard deviation σ, these three properties hold for the distribution of sample average X¯, assuming certain conditions hold:

✅ The distribution of the sample statistic is approximately normal

✅ The distribution is centered at the population parameter (often interest of inference)

✅ The variability of the distribution is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size

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Quiz

Q - Why do we care about the distribution of sample mean?

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Quiz

Q - Why do we care about the distribution of sample mean?

We can estimate / test for a population mean.

We can construct a confidence interval or conduct a hypothesis test for the population mean using the CLT-based distribution in place of a simulation-based distribution of sample mean.

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Quiz

Q - What is the distribution of sample mean by CLT?

When the population mean μ and the population standard deviation σ are known,

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Quiz

Q - What is the distribution of sample mean by CLT?

When the population mean μ and the population standard deviation σ are known,

X¯N(μ,σ/n)Z=X¯μσ/nN(0,1)

approximately, for a large enough n.

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Quiz

Q - What is the distribution of sample mean by CLT?

When the population mean μ and the population standard deviation σ are known,

X¯N(μ,σ/n)Z=X¯μσ/nN(0,1)

approximately, for a large enough n.

  • N(0,1) is standard normal distribution.
  • Often, a random variable following the standard normal distribution is denoted by Z.
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Quiz

Q - What if σ is unknown?

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Quiz

Q - What if σ is unknown?

  • We approximate σ with the sample standard deviation.
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Quiz

Q - What if σ is unknown?

  • We approximate σ with the sample standard deviation.

Z=X¯μσ/nT=X¯μS/n where S2=i=1n(XiX¯)2/(n1)

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Quiz

Q - What if σ is unknown?

  • We approximate σ with the sample standard deviation.

Z=X¯μσ/nT=X¯μS/n where S2=i=1n(XiX¯)2/(n1)

  • σ replaced by S! (The realized value of S from a sample is s.)
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Quiz

Q - What if σ is unknown?

  • We approximate σ with the sample standard deviation.

Z=X¯μσ/nT=X¯μS/n where S2=i=1n(XiX¯)2/(n1)

  • σ replaced by S! (The realized value of S from a sample is s.)
  • This change renders the random variable T follow another distribution than the standard normal distribution, i.e., Ttn1 where tn1 is a t-distribution with n1 degrees of freedom.
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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is
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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is unimodal, symmetric, centered at 0 similarly to N(0,1).
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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is unimodal, symmetric, centered at 0 similarly to N(0,1).

  • Its tails are

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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is unimodal, symmetric, centered at 0 similarly to N(0,1).

  • Its tails are thicker than N(0,1).

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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is unimodal, symmetric, centered at 0 similarly to N(0,1).

  • Its tails are thicker than N(0,1).

  • It is fully defined by

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Quiz

Q - List properties of the t-distribution.

  • Its shape is unimodal, symmetric, centered at 0 similarly to N(0,1).

  • Its tails are thicker than N(0,1).

  • It is fully defined by the degrees of freedom.

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Quiz

Q - Black solid line is N(0,1). What is the t-distribution with df = 1, 3, 10, and 30?

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Quiz

Q - Black solid line is N(0,1). What is the t-distribution with df = 1, 3, 10, and 30?

  • thicker tails
  • As the degrees of freedom increases, the t-distribution becomes more like N(0,1)
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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to calculate P(T<1.2) where Tt5?

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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to calculate P(T<1.2) where Tt5?

pt(1.2, df = 5)
## [1] 0.8580545
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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to calculate P(2<T<3) where Tt10?

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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to calculate P(2<T<3) where Tt10?

pt(3, df = 10) - pt(-2, df = 10)
## [1] 0.9566342
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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to find q s.t. P(T>q)=0.25 where Xt7?

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Quiz

Q - What is an appropriate code to find q s.t. P(T>q)=0.25 where Xt7?

qt(0.25, df = 7, lower.tail = FALSE)
## [1] 0.7111418
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Quiz: HT

Let's conduct a hypothesis test for H0:μ=5 vs. H1:μ5. We don't know the population standard deviation. We have a random sample of size 100. The CLT conditions are checked.

Q - What is the test statistic and its null distribution by CLT?

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Quiz: HT

Let's conduct a hypothesis test for H0:μ=5 vs. H1:μ5. We don't know the population standard deviation. We have a random sample of size 100. The CLT conditions are checked.

Q - What is the test statistic and its null distribution by CLT?

  • The test statistic is calculated by t=x¯5s/10.
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Quiz: HT

Let's conduct a hypothesis test for H0:μ=5 vs. H1:μ5. We don't know the population standard deviation. We have a random sample of size 100. The CLT conditions are checked.

Q - What is the test statistic and its null distribution by CLT?

  • The test statistic is calculated by t=x¯5s/10.

  • Under the null, T=X¯5S/10t99

  • Capital letters for random variables and lowercase letters for observed values
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Quiz: HT

Q - What does it mean that the test statistic is 3.5?

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Quiz: HT

Q - What does it mean that the test statistic is 3.5?

The observed sample mean x¯ is 3.5 standard errors above the hypothesized population mean, 5.

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Quiz: CI

Q - What is the formula to obtain a 1α confidence interval for μ ?

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Quiz: CI

Q - What is the formula to obtain a 1α confidence interval for μ ?

x¯±tn1×sn

where tn1 is a critical value that satisfies P(T>tn1)=α/2 for Ttn1.

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Quiz: CI

Q - What is the formula to obtain a 1α confidence interval for μ ?

x¯±tn1×sn

where tn1 is a critical value that satisfies P(T>tn1)=α/2 for Ttn1.

Q - What is the R function to calculate tn1?

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Quiz: CI

Q - What is the formula to obtain a 1α confidence interval for μ ?

x¯±tn1×sn

where tn1 is a critical value that satisfies P(T>tn1)=α/2 for Ttn1.

Q - What is the R function to calculate tn1?

qt(alpha/2, df = n-1, lower.tail = FALSE)
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Quiz

Q - What is the function in the infer package to use for CLT-based inference when σ is unknown?

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Quiz

Q - What is the function in the infer package to use for CLT-based inference when σ is unknown?

t_test()

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Questions?

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Let's Practice Together!

Go to AE 18: Central Limit Theorem 2

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Bulletin

  • Tomorrow is Ask-for-Help day. Bring your questions.

  • Lab06 due tonight at 11:59pm

  • HW03 due Wednesday, June 8 at 11:59pm

  • Tomorrow (June 8) is the last day to withdraw with W

  • Submit ae18

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